Norton Native Intelligence has been predicting a "new normal" for North Georgia. The peak years of 2005, 2006 and 2007 may not be repeated for some time. We will move into a new normal. For Real Estate, more like 2002.... for economic growth more like 2005.....and for population growth more like 1998/1999.

AVOC

.

May 30, 2009

.

Oconee Economic Recovery will come eventually but boom bubble is over for sometime

.

By Wendell Dawson, Editor, AVOC, Inc

.

Seasoned and reasoned voices are now saying there will not be a quick housing recovery.    The Norton Agency of Gainesville, Georgia, in its Intelligence Issue 243 in April 2009, stated:

.

“…..Normal..... for several quarters Norton Native Intelligence has been predicting a "new normal" for North Georgia.  The peak years of 2005, 2006 and 2007 may not be repeated for some time.  We will move into a new normal.  For Real Estate, more like 2002.... for economic growth more like 2005.....and for population growth more like 1998/1999.  We need to remember this is a cycle, just a cycle, that will pass…..”

.

The recession is now being publicly discussed in Oconee County Government.   Area newspapers have been carrying articles for months about revenue shortfalls all over Northeast Georgia and Metro-Atlanta.   While the University and proximity to Atlanta gives us an economic advantage as far as salaries and employment numbers, we are not immune to declining retail and building sales.

.

Oconee County Officials and the local papers have talked about Oconee revenues holding up.   However, the sales tax receipts have been on the decline.   Some development owners are not paying all their property taxes.  (Oconee.Delinquent.Taxes.List.1.8.09.pdf x)  At some point that has to impact cash flow.

.

For a year, the tax assessors said Oconee real estate values were holding up.   The local papers dutifully reported that as fact.However, the Legislature required some adjustments and sales are now showing a decline in values.   How can land values not decline with all the surplus developed lots strewn all over the county?!(PVC Farms).

.

Inactive Subdivision with utilities on Hog Mountain Rd at Union Church Road 9-22-07

.

Westland Subdivision at Highway 78 and Goat Farm Road in Oconee County

Fence 4.6.08

.

The assessors did not increase the values this year and lowered them in the 1 to 2 % range!    That will not be the stopping point!   Look at the subdivision Ghost Towns!

SEE:  Reassessment notices coming in Jackson Herald on May 27.

.

Office vacancies not uncommon in Oconee 2-09

.

In discussing this year’s budget, the commissioners and chairman are discussing taking funds from reserves.   In his May 26, 2009, budget letter, Chairman Melvin Davis talks about possible mid-year adjustments, if the economy turns around!   

.

http://www.oconeecounty.com/Budget/BudgetLtr2010.pdf
Melvin Davis Letter about 2009 Budget 5-26-09

.

Oconee officials need to face reality!   The boom is over…. The bloom is off the rose….!!   The escalating land prices and house building during 2003-2007 were an aberration and not the norm.   We had too many out of town developers making some quick money.   They have left the county with an oversupply of developed lots that will take years to exhaust.    The lack of runaway growth is impacting the building supply business and reducing sales tax.In addition, Home Depot is now in Greensboro, Winder, Monroe and other neighboring areas.   Publix is also located in these counties and in Morgan.Oconee’s retail center at Butler’s Crossing and Epps Bridge Road will not have the limited market of the past.

.

The Chairman and Commissioners have bet a lot of money and hope on the Epps Centre development near the Athens Loop.     That is an elusive dream.    How many stores and shopping centers can an area support?    We have an oversupply of offices and commercial buildings now- look at the Rent and Sale signs around the county!    More stores will just move the dollars around and may wind up closing existing ones.

.

Oconee was on a moderate growth path that allowed adjustments without overloading our roads, schools, utilities and infrastructure.   However, in recent years, county officials have “thrown open the door” and let fast development outrun our rural roads, water and sewer infrastructure.    These same “leaders” have hurriedly jumped into “magic bullet” solutions to our needs.    The Hard Labor Creek Water Project was not really thought through and is not Oconee’s most feasible and viable water supply.   Time, costs and delays will show that in the future.

.

8-24-08 Oconee Taxpayers need to be alert to Hard Labor Creek Project with slowdown in Financial Markets and Revenues

.

HLC Website

http://hardlaborcreek.com/index.php

Map of Reservoir

http://hardlaborcreek.com/images/stories/maps/HardLaborCreekRegionalReservoir.pdf

.

Our transportation dollars were redirected to the Epps Centre Project area at the expense of the rest of our road system.    The Experiment Road-Mars Hill Corridor has been neglected (the project was approved by GA DOT at least 2 & ½ years before Melvin Davis took office).   We will see more gridlock, maintenance costs and accidents because of an overload of our 1950’s era rural road system.

.

4-7-08 Oconee Connector $ 26 million Project is more than a Name Change

.

Oconee.Connector.Jennings.Mill.Pkwy.Project.3.08.pdfx

.

Land prices went up and then down and then up in the 1970’s.In time they will go up again.However, we will not see the booming prices of recent years during the local housing bubble for several years.   Market contraction will cause some discomfort for a lot of us.   1-10-05 Oconee County Land Prices and Speculation May Be Bubble

.

The solution is to face reality, reduce spending and live within our means.   We do not need to borrow against our future.   Water, sewer, schools and road infrastructure for a growing county is expensive and long tem.    There are no “quickie solutions”.

.

For an editorial discussing the downsizing of local government, see the May 29 edition of the Jackson Herald - Mike Buffington talks about how government grew fat and overstaffed in boom times and now must adjust to less revenue.It is not a transient thing.    EDITORIAL: County good now, but clouds are gathering

9-2-05 Is There a Housing Bubble in Oconee County, Georgia & the United States?

4-20-06 Pop Goes the Housing Bubble - Some say

5-7-07 Oconee’s Master Planned Developments have mixed history and success

8-6-07 Property tax problems ahead for Oconee - Housing Slump is part of an economic cycle- supply and demand

5-27-09 Oconee Commissioners want more budget cuts – AB-H

.

The Athens Banner-Herald

http://www.onlineathens.com/stories/052709/new_444148034.shtml

.

May 27, 2009

.

Oconee to cut; how deep?

.

By Adam Thompson

.

Oconee County commissioners are searching ways to keep the current tax rate without taking too much from savings - and asking whether budget cuts would be worth the pain to employees and taxpayers.

.

Facing plummeting revenues, commission Chairman Melvin Davis on Tuesday proposed a slimmer budget to take effect July 1, shrunk 13 percent from last year.

.

However, commissioners are asking for deeper cuts.

.

The four other commissioners disagreed Tuesday with Davis' plan to dip nearly $ 1 million into reserves to cover the $ 34 million overall budget…….

5-29-09 State agencies to cut 25% in June

.

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

http://www.ajc.com/services/content/metro/stories/2009/05/29/revenue_georgia_budget.html?cxtype=rss&cxsvc=7&cxcat=13

.

Friday, May 29, 2009

.

State agencies to cut 25% in June

.

By Aaron Gould Sheinin
.

Gov. Sonny Perdue on Thursday said state revenues for the almost-ended fiscal year have continued to decline and that state agencies will lose a quarter of their June funding.

.

Perdue, in a letter to top state lawmakers, said he is being forced to lower the state revenue estimate by more than $ 274 million for the 2009 fiscal year that ends June 30.

……………………..

5-16-09 Small bank boards exposed to lawsuits

.

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

.

May 17, 2009

.

Small banks’ boards face legal threats over failures

.

By Paul Donsky

.

The boards of Georgia’s small, community-based banks are filled with a virtual Who’s Who of Main Street: Car dealers, doctors, business owners, real estate developers and the like.

4-13-09 Tough year for Tax Collections

.

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

http://www.ajc.com/services/content/metro/stories/2009/04/13/tax_collections_0413.html?cxtype=rss&cxsvc=7&cxcat=13

.

Monday, April 13, 2009

.

Could be a tough year for collecting taxes

.

By D.L. BENNETT

.

Local tax commissioners say they expect one difficult year for collections with so many property owners struggling to make ends meet and scores of properties in transition between owners facing foreclosure and banks retaking the property.

4-12-09 Metro-Athens Construction shows declining trends – Residential down 48% over 2008

.

The Athens Banner-Herald

http://www.onlineathens.com/stories/041209/bus_427916913.shtml

.

April 12, 2009                 BUSINESS BRIEFS

.

Building contract trends still declining

.

McGraw-Hill Construction recently reported on February contracts for future construction in the metropolitan statistical area of Athens-Clarke County, consisting of Clarke, Madison, Oconee and Oglethorpe in Georgia.

.

According to the Research and Analytics unit of McGraw-Hill Construction, the latest month’s construction activity followed this pattern:

.

Nonresidential building was down 91 percent at $ 4.1 million from $ 45.5 million in 2008. Residential building came in at $ 4.7 million, which was down 48 percent from $ 9.1 million in 2008. Total building for February came to $ 8.8 million down 84 percent from $ 54.7 million in 2008.

5-17-09 Permits issued in Oconee County the week of May 4 to 8

.

The Athens Banner-Herald

.

May 17, 2009              BUSINESS Permits

.

Permits issued in Oconee County the week of May 4 to 8 as reported in the Hunt Letter:

• Victoria Pate, 1511 Oconee Crossing Circle, Watkinsville, GA 30677. Issued permit to construct a 722-square-foot addition to be used as a game room and office. Job site: 1151 Creek Hollow Run, Watkinsville, GA 30677. Estimated cost: $ 35,000.

• Seger Realty Inc., 1071 Jamestown Boulevard, Suite 04, Watkinsville, GA 30677. Issued the following single-family permits for the Coldwater Creek Subdivision:

a. 1501 Bent Tree Lane — two-story, four-bedroom, five-bath, 4,203 square feet of heated area, 2,550-square-foot basement, 780-square-foot garage. Estimated cost: $ 464,175.

b. 1263 Bent Tree Lane — two-story, four-bedroom, four-bath, 3,629 square feet of heated area, 2,499-square-foot basement, 668-square-foot garage. Estimated cost: $ 454,425.

• Lane and Lane Builders, 1171 Manor Ridge Drive, Watkinsville, GA 30677. Issued permit to finish a 1,200-square-foot basement. Job site: 1171 Manor Ridge Drive, Watkinsville, GA 30677. Estimated cost: $ 40,000.

The Athens Banner-Herald

.

May 3, 2009

.

Oconee Permits April 20-24

Permits issued in Oconee County the week of April 20-24 as reported in the Hunt Letter.

.

Charles and Leslie Morrow, 2591 Greensboro Highway, Watkinsville, GA 30677. Issued single-family permit: one-story, three-bedroom, two-bath, 1472 square feet of heated area, 1,368-square-foot unheated area. Job site: 2591 Greensboro Highway, Watkinsville, GA 30677. Estimated cost: $ 100,000.

.

Peggy Lynn Armstrong, 174 Lakeside Drive, Arnoldsville, GA 30619. Issued permit to construct a 500-square-foot detached garage. Job site: (Oconee Crossing Subdivision) 1561 Oconee Crossing Circle, Watkinsville, GA 30677. Estimated cost: $ 28,000.

.

Green Source Homes Inc., 1571 Antioch Church Road, Watkinsville, GA 30677. Issued single-family permit: one-story, three-bedroom, two-bath, 1,600 square feet of heated area. Job site: (Deer Brook Subdivision) 1071 Tall Oaks Road, Watkinsville, GA 30677. Estimated cost: $ 70,000

NEWSMAX.COM

May 19, 2009

.

.

WASHINGTON -- A modest rebound in single-family home construction in April raised hopes Tuesday that the three-year slide in housing could be bottoming. But with the supply of unsold homes bulging, foreclosures rising and prices falling, no broad recovery is expected until next spring at the earliest.

.

The Commerce Department said construction of new homes and apartments fell 12.8 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 458,000 units — the lowest pace on records going back a half-century……

5-16-09 Supply of houses in area market

.

NORTON NATIVE INTELLIGENCE

 .

MARKET WATCH       May 2009              Issue 244

.

For our latest research and data reports:  www.nortoncommercial.com/intelligence

.

DATAMINE

4-14-09 Chinese now selling some U.S. Government bonds – Inflation coming

.

TOWN HALL.Com

http://townhall.com/Columnists/ThomasSowell/2009/04/14/magic_words_in_politics?page=full&comments=true

.

April 14, 2009

.

Magic Words in Politics

.

By Thomas Sowell

.

China is the largest foreign holder of U.S. government bonds. But, instead of buying more of those bonds as our skyrocketing national debt leads to more bonds being issued, China has been selling some of its U.S. government bonds this year.

.

The Chinese are no fools. They know that all this unbridled spending-- even when it is called "investment"-- means that inflation is coming………..