9-4-11 Costs of Oconee’s Fast Growth Policies are coming due!

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9-4-11 Costs of Oconee’s Fast Growth Policies are coming due!

Oconee’s policies of promoting Fast Growth were ill advised. We could have avoided much of the housing depression had we stayed on the path of moderate growth. While some developers, builders, businesses and banks have lost much, all of us have lost and will be paying for these mistaken policies for the foreseeable future. ………………………….. COSTS TO THE COUNTY:……………………… AVOC . August 31, 2011 . Costs of Oconee’s Fast Growth Policies are coming due! . By Wendell Dawson, Editor, AVOC, Inc . On August 25, 2011, The Oconee Enterprise carried a front page article by Blake Giles, with a large headline: Parkside foreclosure imminent - Debts of $ 27 million on ambitious 530-acre real estate development. . Parkside Entrance on Mars Hill Road – Tax Parcel # B 05H 001GS - 2-19-11 . The Oconee Enterprise article describes the history of Parkside on Georgia 53 adjacent to Oconee Veteran’s Park that started around 2003-4 with a lot of hoopla. At the time, there were skeptics and I was one who felt it was too much too soon. Citizens voiced objections at hearings on the development. AVOC published several articles questioning the viability of such a huge project- all at one time. SEE LINKS BELOW: . The Oconee Enterprise article also quotes Land Planner/Developer Ken Beall and Realtor/Developer Tom Little extensively. Ken is complimentary of the subdivision and laments its demise. He and Little seem to think it will have minimal impact on the county and land prices. HOGWASH! Land prices are already hurting. Few are buying land these days and prices are down! The housing market is stagnant and Oconee has a supply of platted residential lots that should last for years, if not decades. . The Real Estate market for Commercial and Office buildings is struggling. For Sale and For Lease signs are everywhere. The tax assessors like to say that sales indicate values are stable. That is also Hogwash! There is no market for the properties and not much is selling. For Sale signs are several years old in many cases. At last count, there were ten vacant units in the Resource Valley Office Complex on Jennings Mill Road, where my office is located. Rent is scarcely half of what it was even five years ago. The Tax Digest is still overvalued and is not going to turn around anytime soon. . From time to time, in talking to folks connected to the real estate industry, one hears comments like: ‘When it comes back”…“I am holding on but hope this thing turns around soon!” I feel that much of that talk is wishful thinking. The building market in Oconee County built up a big bubble that burst a few years ago. The National Recession is not helping either.However, the boom of 2003-7 is over for at least the next decade or more. . Oconee’s policies of promoting Fast Growth were ill advised. We could have avoided much of the housing depression had we stayed on the path of moderate growth. While some developers, builders, businesses and banks have lost much, all of us have lost and will be paying for these mistaken policies for the foreseeable future. . COSTS TO THE COUNTY: . 1. Tax Digest has declined and will decline more over the next few years; 2. Our local banks got overextended- one went under. Stockholders have not received dividends in several years – many seniors have been counting on that income; 3. Water and Sewer capacity committed but few paying customers in the dormant subdivisions; 4. County roads are not keeping up with the traffic:New High Shoals Road, Union Church Road, Astondale Road etc needed resurfacing several years ago- they ‘ride rough’! 5. Hard Labor Creek Reservoir has brought serious debt and debt payment stress for our Utility Department; contrary to media ‘puff pieces’ the construction on the Dam has not begun; less than 50% of the land has been acquired; four of the largest landowners have not been acquired and they have the means and determination to slow the land acquisition; this project was a mistake and will cost Oconee County for a lot of years; 6. As more and more foreclosures take place and dormant subdivisions turn over, I am concerned about who buys them and what kind of housing projects we may get; Federal Housing projects cannot be stopped with local zoning actions; our recent experience with being sliced and diced in the House Redistricting process demonstrates the lack of real clout of Oconee at the State and Federal level; 8-23-04 New Oconee 810 Lot Subdivision Coming On GA Highway 53 http://www.avoc.info/info/article.php?article=1535&ENGINEsessID=a2ea75f85c94bf0b361ffcef32dc4eab . Remember all the publicity in recent months about County Officials and Development Community claiming that Oconee County was not growing fast. (Melvin Davis in A B-H on 8-22-04)-noting that Oconee County is one of the fastest-growing counties in Georgia, which is one of the fastest-growing states in the nation. In years past, Athens has gotten the lion's share of federal and state road-building money, but now much of that growth has moved to Oconee, he said.” AVOC . August 22, 2004 . Tract of 500.61 acres between GA 53 & Mars Hill Rd Being Reviewed . Big Growth Plans For County Being Revealed 8-30-04 Not All Oconee Happy With GA Highway 53 Development http://www.avoc.info/info/article.php?article=1549&ENGINEsessID=a2ea75f85c94bf0b361ffcef32dc4eab . Where growth was the centerpiece of the recent election campaigns, incumbents had about as much opposition as support. No one has a mandate to ‘throw open the gates’ or to ‘mortgage the county’s future’.Citizens should not be discouraged.Now is the time to be alert, informed and involved. . AVOC . August 26, 2004 . Many Informed and Responsible Citizens Concerned About Oconee’s Direction 8-25-04 Does Oconee Have New Master Plan? http://www.avoc.info/info/article.php?article=1540&ENGINEsessID=6b40a85c7b61847581e6bc01e393942d Property owners and developers can benefit from a fast-growth policy.However, residents should expect quite a different Oconee County. It is regrettable that real public meetings and discussions were not held before we quietly embarked on this course. ….. It will be interesting to see where the lines are run first - influential landowners, developers and speculators. . AVOC . August 25, 2004 . Oconee Seems to Have New Development Plan . 2-21-11 Oconee County’s ‘Chickens Coming Home to Roost’ http://www.avoc.info/info/article.php?article=4152 . 10-6-09 Oconee County’s Days of Reckoning – Economy & Economic Development http://www.avoc.info/info/article.php?article=4037 . 2– 4 -11 North GA Bank (Oconee County) Closed by FDIC Today http://www.avoc.info/info/article.php?article=4149 North GA Bank will become part of BankSouth based in Greene County. Depositors will be protected but not necessarily the stockholders……… . 2-16-09 Banks struggling – Local Banks on list of GA challenged banks http://www.avoc.info/info/article.php?article=3987 . 1-10-05 Oconee County Land Prices and Speculation May Be Bubble http://www.avoc.info/info/article.php?article=2162&ENGINEsessID=478b0a8cbb9ecbdb6c6a717c8421f80a ………For some of us of “senior status”, spiraling prices for land and housing has caused some head scratching. Will it last? Is it a long-term thing?There are many opinions out there.One can also look to life’s experiences and historic trends. Some of us remember previous booms and busts- 1974 (President Ford’s Tax Credits Helped kick-start the industry), the late 70’s, mid-eighties etc.In my first two decades of law practice, I did a lot of legal work for developers and builders. In 1974, I remember several builders “went under”.We helped some of them liquidate. Later slow downs caught up with some more builders who have been long gone…… . 9-2-05 Is There a Housing Bubble in Oconee County, Georgia & the United States? http://www.avoc.info/info/article.php?article=3051&ENGINEsessID=b8f45d943a1b16772245534247e46b5f For the last several years, I have observed “row houses”, on small lots, along GA 316 in Gwinnett and Barrow Counties. Oconee did not have much of that until sewer service and MPDs came to the county. Now they are springing up in many places, some rural “boondocks” in my lifetime……. . 4-20-06 Pop Goes the Housing Bubble - Some say http://www.avoc.info/info/article.php?article=3457&ENGINEsessID=b8f45d943a1b16772245534247e46b5f . "Bubbles burst, they really do," said Joel Naroff of Naroff Economic Advisers. "The Federal Reserve has to be concerned that just may happen, which could make them more cautious going forward." Over a 35 year career of practicing law and being involved in 1,000s of real estate transactions, I have seen several down cycles in the housing market. From each downturn, I remember some builders (developers) (who had been “boring with a big auger”, as a friend said), just disappeared from the landscape. We have been on a pretty long run for about 14 years. Metro-Atlanta flight is feeding the NEGA housing market and growth. However, interest rates, supply and demand and other factors can cause a hic-cup or outright recession in the market. Some have predicted it for sometime now- just as some did about the stock market and the technology listings in the late nineties.Some win and some lose. A fire can only burn bright for so long! We will see over time who survives the next natural downturn….. . Subdivision started on Union Church Road in 2007- Stopped and is now “grown over” . Coldwater on Union Church Road and Whippoorwill Rd stalled in 2007 – still stalled in 2011 . 1-29-10 Oconee Sales & Property Taxes, Assessments and budget issues http://www.avoc.info/info/article.php?article=4065&ENGINEsessID=79cbb6e1a5ff015bc822623c7cd39b96 . 10-6-08 Does Oconee County really need more retail space at this time? http://www.avoc.info/info/article.php?article=3946&ENGINEsessID=79cbb6e1a5ff015bc822623c7cd39b96 . 12-19-09 Oconee Land values are down- Tax evaluations and Digest should follow in 2010 http://www.avoc.info/info/article.php?article=4055 . Land value decline in Oconee County is now a matter of record! (413.44 acres sold for $ 1.6 Million or an average of $ 3,869.96 per acre). On December 11, 2009, DUN-LA-HUR DEVELOPMENT, INC sold to APALACHEE RIVER PROPERTIES, LLC, 413.44 acres on the Apalachee River and U S 441 for $ 1.6 Million or an average of $ 3,869.96 per acre (Deed Book 1043, Pages 235-236). The same land was purchased by the seller on January 6, 2005, for a total price of $ 2,480,700.00 (Deed Book 782, Pages 510 -511). .